Thank you for being one of our earliest readers. This update is for informational purposes only, not financial advice.
Our goal is to share investment alpha: spotting unique insights and acting on them before the market catches up.
§01Macro events
Fed Chair Powell hints at a rate cut
In his Jackson Hole remarks, Powell said the "balance of risks" had shifted and that policy remained restrictive and "may warrant" an adjustment, language investors read as dovish. That reversed his April wait-and-see posture, and risk assets jumped because anticipated rate cuts typically loosen financial conditions, allowing more liquidity (and potentially faster money growth) to chase risk, especially long-duration tech.
Nvidia Q2 earnings
Nvidia's August print reinforced the AI capex boom: Q2 FY26 revenue hit $46.7B with Blackwell ramping. It raised Q3 guidance to ~$54B while excluding potential H20 sales to China. The company also disclosed no H20 sales to China and a $180M inventory reserve release, while Washington's proposed 15% levy on China-bound chips underscores an export-license overhang that could compress margins if shipments resume. Nvidia's report buttressed the AI-led market rally, but filings show two direct customers at 39% of revenue, which means any hyperscaler capex pause can ripple through semis, cloud platforms, and other long-duration tech.
Figma IPO
Figma's late-July IPO debuted at $33 and closed up ~250% to $115.50, extending the pattern set by Coreweave and Circle of IPO-day premiums for high-growth, frontier software. If that premium persists, the IPO window likely stays open wider than last year, with 2025 issuances already at 229 compared to 225 throughout all of 2024 and other prominent late-stage startups such as Klarna and Databricks opting to IPO.
Fresh tariffs, a U.S. stake in Intel
The administration escalated trade tensions with 50% tariffs on India (effective Aug. 28) and Brazil, raising U.S. input costs, a setup that can pressure equity risk appetite if inflation expectations and yields drift higher. Stateside, the White House moved to buy a 9.9% stake in Intel for $8.9B, potentially de-risking U.S. fab build-outs (a tailwind for domestic semi capex and equipment suppliers) while also introducing governance and dilution concerns.
§02Quality companies we're tracking
Following Buffett's playbook, we look at stocks as pieces of businesses and focus on finding great companies at reasonable prices. Our investment process starts with identifying promising companies, then doing careful valuation work to guide allocation.
Building a financial super-app where new users increase platform liquidity and engagement, creating network effects that compound over time. With nearly zero marginal cost per customer, scale directly expands margins.
Cuts out insurance and pharmacy layers, delivering healthcare directly to millions of subscribers with strong brand pull. As more customers join, acquisition costs fall and margins expand.
Bitcoin mining infrastructure at scale; expanding into AI compute, leveraging existing infrastructure for both markets. Cost per hash falls as operations grow.
Racing to lock in first-mover contracts in grid-scale storage at the perfect moment, AI data centers need 24/7 power while solar peaks midday. Utilities stick with suppliers for decades.
Illustrative · Not a recommendation · Positions change
§03Alpha from our community
A big part of generating alpha comes from the collective intelligence of our community. By sharing the companies we work at, the products we actually spend money on, and our views on where technology is headed, we surface signals before they show up in the data.
2025 IPO market: red-hot returns and a growing pipeline
The IPO pipeline remains busy with Klarna, Figure, and Gemini. Retail investors can think about getting involved through multiple brokers like Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab. Each of these brokerages distributes shares differently, and you may want to think about maximizing your chances of allocation. h/t Jimmy Young
Seneca Foods: hidden value behind LIFO accounting
Seneca Foods looks cheap because LIFO accounting masks its true earnings and equity, while FIFO shows far stronger profitability. After compounding book value ~10% annually for two decades, the stock has only recently risen to around tangible book, closing the discount that persisted in 2023–24. In a rationalized oligopoly with Del Monte's retreat, Seneca's cash generation, buyback discipline, and accounting opacity make it a durable beans-based compounding machine. h/t Mike Reid
§04Private deals
In August, we participated in several private deals, including VGroup Ventures (VClub), Marathon Fusion, PathOn AI, SwiftLane, and Giga Next (Giga AI). These investments expand our exposure to innovative companies across AI, infrastructure, and robotics.
§05Thanks
Thank you for being a part of this journey. If you have any feedback, please reach out at hello@miltonmaxwell.com.
Alex & Charlie